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Joeylond no longer I Earle an ex-Liberal. lie too gilt the Liberals ST. JOHN’S —-Considering Newfwndland’s Liberal-dominated electoral history, it was a rant. . The Progressive Conservatives, who took only three out of 42 seats in the last pro- vincial election, stunned the Liberals by win- ning enough seats to form a minority gov- ernment. With all the votes counted, it stood at PCs 21 seats, Liberals 20, and New Lab- rador Party 1. However, the margin in several constituen- cies was close emugh so that rocmnts were inevitable. Reported irregularities in Labrador .South could invalidate the narrow Liberal vic- ‘Tory there, and the rejected Premier Joey Smalle was threatening court action in a few cf the constituencies that had gone to the PCs. Smallwood seemed determined to hold onto power, and the change of government might have to await his defeat in the House of As- sembly. “I think it is going to take a charge of dynamite to shake him'out of there," John Crosbie, the ccessful Conservative candidate mat. John’s West said Friday. But there was no mistaking the magnitude of the PC victory. Smallwood took his own constituency of Placentia East by only 190 votes. Seven cabinet ministers and the Speaker of the Horse were defeated. The Conservatives took 52 per cent of the popular vote as com- pared to 45 per cent for the Liberals. And the turnout was 8r? per cent of eligible voters, unprecedented in Newfoundland (where normal turnouts are around 65 per cent) or anywhere else -- Newfoundlanders had gone out in record numbers to oust the Smalle government. The PCs suffered only one casualty election night: former Liberal finance minister Val Earle, who crossed the floor of the House two years ago during the debates over the Shaheen oil refinery deal, was defeated in Fortune Bay, which he had won as a Liberal in 1966 (although he managed to cut the over- whelming Liberal majority of 1966, in an area that has alwa 5 been a bulwark of Smallwood strength, to 9 votes). The only other major Conservative figure to go down to defeat was Robert .Wells, a prominent St. John’s lawyer, who failed in his attempt to win a Bonavista seat. The man who holds the balance of power (at this writing) is Tom Burgess, leader of the New Labrador Party, like Crosbie and . in disgust over Joey’s big industrial giveaways, and formed the NLP for this election as an outlet for the feeling among people in Labrador that they have been ignored by the St. John’s government. Not only did Burgess win his own seat of Labrador West, defeating Labor Minister Roy Legge, but the NLP made sub- stantial showings in the other two Labrador seats as well, and took an overall plurality of Labrador votes. ' Although Burgess indicated on election night that he was leaning toward supporting the PCs, he said the next day that he would bargain with either party. It is extremely unlikely, however, that he would make a deal with a Liberal party led by Joey Smallwood. And even in the improbable event that they do not get Burgess’ support, the PCs might still be able to govern. Two of the Liberal members elected were supporters of John Crosbie when he ran for the Liberal leadership against Smallwood in 1969 before crossing the floor, and would probably not vote to defeat a government in which Crosbie was a major figure. ' There was a definite pattern to the results. Smallwood's influence in urban centres was eroded completely. Every seat in St. John’s, Corner Brook, Grand Falls, and Gander went overwhelmingly Conservative. Eyen outside the cities, Conservative strength varied" directly as the extent of urbanization and industriali- zation. The coastal districts, where there is little, and few young voters because the young people have all gone elsewhere, where people remember the days before 1949 and the social- welfare benefits conferred by Confederation, remained in the Liberal column. One exception is Burgeo-Lapoile, which con- tains the town of Burgeo where fish-plant workers have been on strike since early summer. The result in that riding, which went 7 Conservative by a small margin, reflects the growth as a force in Newfoundland politics of the strongly anti-Smallwood Newfoundland Fishermen, Food, and Allied Workers Union. Other constituencies that have been the scene of strikes this past summer, like Grand Falls and Burin, also went PC. Shrewd politician that he was, Joey saw the possibility of a decisive urban swing to the PCs years ago and rigged the electoral map bthbcm From the Lambda solidly in favor of the rural vote. Urban tidings tend to be large )(one St. John’s‘con- stituency has 18,000 registered voters) while outport districts have as few as 3,000 voters. This meant that although nearly one garter of the province’s population voted in St. John’s, they could elect only six PC members there. » It almost worked. Newfoundlanders went to bed election night thinking the Liberals hada minority gwernment. But when the university vote was counted the next morning, one more crucial seat had swung to the PCs--St. Barbe South at the southern end of the Avalon Peu- insula, won by Ed Maynard, a NFFAW or- ganizer, by a handful of votes. _ Maynard and Tom Burgess would be NDP in any other province. But the only way to start change- in this province is to form a coalition: the PCs are a melting pot for all disenchanted groups. The provincial NDP fared very badly, re- ceiving fewer than 600 votes in every riding it contested. _ This does not reflect on the future chances, of the party in any way. People were not taking any chance of splitting the anti-Smallwood vote; even the labor leaders were solidly Tq-y. The rationale was to throw out Smallwood, ‘let the people accustom themselves to change, and thébtry to build a stronger leftist move- ment here for the next time. Smallwood has said he will not contest an- other election, and the Liberals could have leadership problems as several potential leadership candidates -- Finance Minister Fred Rowe, Economic Development Minister John Nolan, and Mines Minister William Callahan --' went down to defeat. - , The Conservatives, with no loyal civil ser- vants and no experience running the state machinery, will have problems as several machinery, will have problems of their own. Another possible source of tension is that the dominant figure in the party has not been the leader, Frank Moores, but rather John Crosbie. Moores has now built a strong base on the west coast of the island; his majority in Humber West was the largest in any con- stituency outside St. John’s. I , But the people of Newfoundland did not vote for Frank Moores: they voted‘ against Joeyi Smailwood. -