News Notes

The Not-So Dire Situation in Ottawa Don't Expect the Government to Fall Anytime Soon

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appear much more desperate than it really was. After the evening the four parties reached a deal on the amendment, removing the statement promising Quebec control over federal funds.

Indeed all four parties say they want this minority government to work, but how exactly will this work? If all members are present, 154 votes are needed for a majori- ty. If any three of the parties vote together,

UPEI Cadre October 12, 2004 page 3

they control the house, but if this is not the case things get interesting, as some lines were drawn in the sand last week. The NDP planned to vote with the Liberals against the amendment before it was revised, while the Conservatives were to vote with the Bloc. These two rival camps appear to have emerged. The NDP and the Liberals com- bined control 153 seats, as do the Bloc and the Tories. If these parties vote together, the deciding vote belongs to an Independent MP, Chuck Cadman, a former Conservative who failed to win the party nomination in the last election. While many expect him to vote with the Conservatives, he did not reveal which side he would have voted with last week. If all four parties fail to co-oper- ate and these two camps emerge on some issues, this single Independent would hold the balance of power in the House of Commons.

However, this may not happen. On Friday, the Liberals introduced tough new legisla- tion to combat child pornography which is sure to please the Conservatives who have been pushing for this. Expect the parties to work together, despite continuing to throw political barbs back and forth, and the media to use: these comments to exaggerate the situation. At the same time, remember, the average minority government has lasted 18 months. It would be a safe bet to expect more of the same in this government, because for at least a year, no party will be willing to force an election and face angry voters.